Film director and media expert Azim Azimov analyzed the political situation ahead of the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for October 4, 2020. He cited his list of parties that have the most chances to enter the Jogorku Kenesh this fall. “Kloop” brings a brief retelling of Azimov’s forecast as a discourse to the current situation in the political arena of Kyrgyzstan.
“This is an early forecast and is based on the potential of the parties participating in the elections. As the situation develops, the data will be updated and affect the voting results. Since there are a lot of suspicious people on social networks, I will say right away that I do not work with any of the parties, and my analysis is an expression of my personal opinion, ”warns the media expert.
First, Azimov decided to consider the parties that are now working in parliament and have confirmed their participation in the elections – Kyrgyzstan, Bir Bol, Ata Meken and Respublika, which broke away from Ata-Zhurt.
In addition to them, Azimov included in the list of potential election winners the “party of power” – “Birimdik” and the party “close to power” – “Mekenim Kyrgyzstan”.
He also chose for consideration the political associations that previously claimed to be in parliament – Butun Kyrgyzstan and Zamandash, the new party of Kamchybek Tashiyev, Mekenchil, the main Facebook party of this spring, Chon Kazat, and, at the request of Twitter, Reform “.
This is what the TOP-5 parties look like, which, according to Azimov, will enter parliament in the fall of 2020.
Azimov believes that the first three parties are “the simplest” – “Birimdik”, “Mekenim Kyrgyzstan” and “Kyrgyzstan”.
The media expert believes that the main factor for getting into parliament is not money and not the personality of the party leader, but “the experience of winning” the elections. Therefore, he immediately put the political union “Kyrgyzstan” in third place in the list of possible winners.
“The“ Kyrgyzstan ”party has consistently passed not only to parliament, but also to many local keneshes throughout the country. […] Elections are, first of all, a technological and political process, and only then a decision based on emotions. “Kyrgyzstan” is a party that does not harbor illusions, they do not count on people’s love, and will work out the campaign using their usual tools, ”Azimov suggests.
The media expert admits that a year ago he would have put the pro-government Birimdik in first place because of the administrative resources and finances. But the pandemic and crisis in the economy “play against” the ruling party, and the president and government are busy fighting the coronavirus.
“A” Mekenim Kyrgyzstan, headed by the Matraimov family, is successfully capitalizing on the ongoing chaos by doing charity work, opening hospitals, sponsoring doctors and volunteers, and using them in their own campaigning, ”Azimov said.
Therefore, he ranks Mekenim Kyrgyzstan, the “main force in the political market” of Kyrgyzstan, in first place in terms of the number of votes, and Birimdik, second. At the same time, Azimov believes that if neighboring states intervene in the election race, then “everything can change.”
Eight more political parties are competing for two free places in the top five, so Azimov decided to weed out the candidates, listing the factors of their possible defeat.
Azimov believes that the Chon Kazat and Reform parties are the obvious candidates for departure. In his opinion, Chon Kazat, which became a sensation before the quarantine, lost its spirit and chances of winning due to political pressure, interrogations of party leaders, an information attack in the media and the departure of Kanat Khasanov.
“Reform”, which collects 5 million soms of collateral through crowdfunding, does not pass the selection due to the fact that the political culture of Kyrgyzstan “has not yet matured to donate to parties.”
Further, the media expert says that another important factor in the party’s entry into parliament is its confident and clearly defined leadership. Therefore, Azimov puts the Ata Meken party in fourth place.
“Omurbek Tekebaev, Zhanar Akaev and Ryskeldi Mombekov are among the main political speakers. They can quite successfully earn political points on the opposition request of society, ”he said.
Azimov added that despite the weak field work of Ata-Meken, the party, if the campaign is launched correctly in September, can still “manage to get through” to parliament, as in the 2015 elections.
Now five parties claim for the fifth and last slot of the preliminary list of winners: Bir Bol, Respublika, Butun Kyrgyzstan, Zamandash and Mekenchil.
“Zamandash” drops out of the list due to lack of experience in victory, “weak” party organization, and “weak leadership”. It is now headed by the widow of the founder of the party, Muktar Omurakunov, Chynar Sheishekeev. According to Azimov, the party will not have serious chances even with the attraction of funds from Askar Salymbekov [глава ассоциации «Дордой»].
The next, due to the non-participation of the leader Omurbek Babanov, is “Respublika”, which is going through difficult days now. The media expert suggests that its entrepreneurial members will strive to leave for “more money-friendly” parties.
“In addition, the authorities are interested in the loss of“ Respublika ”, as this reduces Babanov’s chance of returning, who has left politics forever,” Azimov winks.
Further, the presenter removes from the speaker the new Mekenchil party of Kamchybek Tashiev, who took the fourth place among the politicians of Kyrgyzstan who are trusted by the citizens. Azimov commented video in which Tashiev announced his participation in the elections.
“Before us appears a man tired after a serious illness in stretched sweatpants, an old sweater and a hat with an unkempt beard. This, of course, may indicate his closeness to the people, but the body language of the politician does not show readiness for a fierce struggle for power, ”the expert said.
Now there are two parties that are competing for the fifth place in Azimov’s top – Butun Kyrgyzstan and Bir Bol. The expert spoke about the leaders of each party, causing “conflicting feelings.”
Adakhan Madumarov at the head of Butun Kyrgyzstan twice failed to enter parliament with a “tiny gap” in votes, showed a “convincing” result in the presidential election, but does not hold office and does not participate in “real” politics.
Altynbek Sulaimanov, who heads Bir Bol, came out in 2015 with a team of former Bakiyev officials, who were called “12 friends of Maxim Bakiyev” in Kirnet.
“Nevertheless, if we consider it rationally, then his former party members brought money to the party’s cashier and worked out each of their sections throughout the country. Attracting liberal and progressive young people to the party list is an interesting experiment. But it only affects the media coverage of the party, and not the outcome of the vote, ”Azimov said.
However, the media expert “believes” that “Bir Bol” can win the parliamentary elections if there is a well-thought-out political organization behind this “facade”, and the election campaign proceeds in the “usual” way.
Therefore, the last vacant place in the preliminary list of winners is occupied by Sulaimanov’s party.
In total, according to Azimov, deputies from the following five parties may well count on getting into parliament: Mekenim Kyrgyzstan, Birimdik, Kyrgyzstan, Ata Meken and Bir Bol.
Azimov promises to do two more such analyzes: after the registration of parties on August 20 and before the start of the election campaign in September.
Parliamentary elections will be held on October 4. As of July 9, 44 parties registered at the CEC to participate in the election race. However, not all parties will be able to take a real part in the elections due to the electoral deposit of 5 million soms.
The decision of the authorities to hold parliamentary elections in the fall caused a public outcry. Many believe that it is necessary to redirect the money allocated for the elections to the purchase of medicines, PPE for doctors and equipment necessary in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
Activists, some parties and deputies were in favor of postponing the elections. However, in an interview with Birinchi Radio, President Sooronbai Jeenbekov reportedthat the elections will not be rescheduled.
All expenses related to the preparation and conduct of elections are covered by funds from the state budget.
Initially, it was planned to allocate 732 million soms for the elections. However, later the CEC announced that it had carried out “optimization of the costs of holding elections” and reduced costs to 446,900,000 soms.
The CEC reportedthat 60 million soms will be allocated to ensure sanitary and epidemiological standards.