At the rate KazakhSTAN 2.0, dual power in Kazakhstan, when the authoritarian political system and the “super-presidential” vertical are headed by two people at once – the first president of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev and his successor Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, is nearing its logical end. And although it is not yet clear when this will happen for sure, the fact itself is no longer in doubt.
That writes KazakhSTAN 2.0?
In this regard, we recommend not to overreact to all sorts of alleged leaks of information about where is Elbasy resting nowand what kind of showdowns are going on in the ruling elite over the misappropriation of public funds and the shifting of responsibility for the mistakes made in the fight against coronavirus and its socio-economic consequences. Apparently, they are designed to distract the public’s attention from what is happening in the Library.
We think that many in the country have noted to themselves that in 2020 the celebration of Nur-Sultan Day and, at the same time, the 80th anniversary of Nursultan Nazarbayev passed rather fadedly, unless, of course, we do not count the ill-fated fireworks in the capital. And they probably considered the reason for this either the illness of the elbasy with the coronavirus or the desire of the authorities not to aggravate the internal political situation by too stormy celebration of the anniversary. However, in the past, such political correctness was never characteristic of either the “leader of the nation” or Akorda.
We have previously expressed our doubt in the fact that Nursultan Nazarbayev had a coronavirus disease in general, and it was suggested that the matter was most likely a political necessity. Another question is what caused her.
Then we offered three possible versions: pessimistic, optimistic and something in between. Let’s remind:
“According to the first version, the state of health of Nursultan Nazarbayev after the meeting with the first deputy chairman of the Nur Otan party Bauyrzhan Baybek and the meeting with the Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan Asset Isekeshev, as well as the meeting of the Management Council of the Sovereign Wealth Fund“ Samruk-Kazyna ”on June 3, 2020 and the reception on the same day of the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United Arab Emirates to Kazakhstan Mohammad al-Jaber, and without that the problem has deteriorated sharply. And since July 6, 2020 is ahead, when Nursultan Nazarbayev is obliged to appear before the people, but will not be able to do it without risking his life and internal political stability in the country, the Library decided to use the coronavirus.
The optimistic version is that on June 24, 2020, Moscow will host a Victory Parade in honor of the 75th anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War, which is an important element of two important political projects of Russian President Vladimir Putin: to consolidate the country and the Russian people and to extend his powers as the head of state by changing the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Accordingly, Nursultan Nazarbayev, as an old (though not always loyal) ally of Mr. Putin, is simply obliged to be there. But it is very likely that after an unexpected March visit to Moscow, the Elbasy has no desire to communicate with his Russian counterpart in person, so he decided quite prudently to hide behind the coronavirus.
The middle version is that Nursultan Nazarbayev and the people around him decided to celebrate the anniversary in a light version. For many reasons, including the desire to protect the hero of the day from external contact with those who may be a hidden carrier of the coronavirus. In other words, although the Elbasy is also able to somehow demonstrate himself to the people, he decided not to do it. “
So, according to insider information from Akorda (the Library is so rigidly closed from outside observers that one is surprised), the pessimistic version is still true.
Its next confirmation, in addition to the colorless and boring celebration of the 80th anniversary of the first president of the Republic of Kazakhstan, was the statistics of his public activity. We evaluated it in the periods from March 20 to August 2, 2020 and from March 20 to August 2, 2019, and the source was the official website the head of state.
The results are as follows:
We do not see any reason to comment on these figures – they clearly indicate that Kazakhstan will soon return to its classic model: one country – one leader. Moreover, we would venture to suggest that the current configuration of the Kazakhstani vertical of power will remain for at least two more years and will be headed by Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev.
But to the question of who will be next to him and who will take part in solving key issues, we have no answer. Until. There are many conversations and forecasts, but they are all too subjective. A lot will depend on chance, coincidence, and overlap, including human destinies, personnel decisions, and economic change.
There are other versions
Nursultan Nazarbayev will return to Kazakhstan only on August 10, and the very next day he is scheduled to speak at a meeting of the Security Council, where the resignation of Prime Minister Askar Mamin will be announced. They say that Elbasy has accumulated claims against Mom, including personal ones, write telegram channels.
There is also a version that Nazarbayev is preparing a “collective successor” in the form of a president – a strong prime minister – head of the Senate.