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The results of the July survey on the assessment of the business climate in Uzbekistan showed moderate fall

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) under the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan conducted another survey among entrepreneurs to assess the business climate in Uzbekistan. 1003 enterprises took part in the July survey.

In general, in July 2020, indicators of the business climate, current state and expectations of development prospects showed moderate declines. However, the current values remain above the results of May 2020.

The survey of enterprises is carried out in two directions: a qualitative assessment of the current state of business and the expectations of entrepreneurs regarding the prospects for the development of their business for the next 2-3 months.

The indicator of the current state of business showed a moderate decline and amounted to 19 points, down 11 points compared to the previous month, which characterizes the moderately positive sentiment of entrepreneurs regarding the current state of their business.

According to the survey, 30% of enterprises rated the current state of their business as “Good”, 47% – “Satisfactory”, and 23% – “Bad”.

The demand for goods / services “has improved”, 32% of enterprises reported this, 36% answered that “has not changed”, “worsened” is considered by 32% of respondents. The number of employees “increased” for 17% of enterprises, “did not change” was said by 68%, “decreased” – 15%.

The indicator of expectations for business development prospects for the next 2-3 months was 68 points, showing a slight drop by 6 points compared to June, which suggests that entrepreneurs’ expectations about the prospects for their business development for the next 2-3 months are positive. The analysis showed that 68% of the surveyed enterprises assessed the prospects for business development as “Improving”, 29% believe “Will not change” and only 3% expect that “It will get worse”.

Demand for goods / services “Will improve” is expected by 65% of enterprises, “Will not change” is believed by 30%, “Will worsen” – 5%. It is expected that 53% of enterprises will have an “increase” in the number of employees, “Will not change” in the next 2-3 months was noted by 45%, “Will decrease” – 2%. 36% of the surveyed enterprises expect an “increase” in prices for their goods / services, 61% are sure that prices for goods / services “will not change” and only 3% will “decrease”.

The business climate indicator was 42 points, showing a decrease of 9 points, i.e. the state of the business climate in the country is assessed as good.

The relationship between the values of the current situation and expectations means that the country’s economy will experience intensive development in the next 2-3 months. It should be noted that the assessment of similar indicators of the business climate in Russia (-5) and in China (51.1) showed insignificant increases by 1 and 0.2 points, respectively, compared to the previous month; Turkey (101) saw an increase of 8.4 points, and South Korea (57) saw an increase of 6 points.

Assessment of the current state of the business. It is calculated as the difference between the answers “Good” and “Bad” as a percentage of the population of the sample. The value of the current state varies from -100 points (all respondents assess the current state as bad) to 100 points (all respondents assess the current state as good);

Expectations of business development prospects for the next 2-3 months. It is calculated as the difference between the answers “Will improve” and “Worse” as a percentage of the sample population. The expectation value ranges from -100 points (all respondents expect further deterioration in their business) to 100 points (all respondents expect further improvement from the business);

The business climate value is calculated based on the average balance sheet values of the current state and business expectations. The Business Climate value can fluctuate between -100 points (all respondents assess the current state as bad and expect further deterioration of their business) and 100 points (all respondents assess the current state as good and expect further improvement in their business).

Based on the relationship between indicators of the current state and expectations of prospects, it is possible to determine the phases of the economic cycle in the country for the next 2-3 months.

If both values of the current state and expectations are negative, then the economy in the country, in the next 2-3 months, will be in a state of recession. If the value of the current state is negative, while the value of the expectation is positive, then the economy, in the next 2-3 months, will experience an upturn or recovery.

If both values of the current state and expectations are positive, then the economy, in the next 2-3 months, will experience accelerated development.

If the value of the current state is positive, while the value of the expectation is negative, then the economy, in the next 2-3 months, will show a slowdown in growth.

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